Ag Weather Forum

The chances for significant showers to occur in the driest areas of the Canadian Prairies grain and oilseed areas remains fairly limited during the next seven days.

The included graphic shows the potential for rainfall, expressed as a percentage of normal, over the Canadian Prairies region during the next seven days. This graphic is based on the U.S. Global Forecast model. I have also looked at the global forecast model from the European Computer Model. This model shows even less rainfall being forecast for the region.

This includes mainly dry conditions at the end of this week with above-to-well-above normal temperatures. As we move into the last part of the weekend and during the early and middle part of next week, we will see weak upper level disturbances moving through the area.

These systems may lead to some showers, but most of the activity would occur in either northern Saskatchewan or in Manitoba. The first system looks to bring some showers to northern Saskatchewan Sunday and to Manitoba during Monday.

These areas may see light to locally moderate rainfall during this timeframe, but probably not enough to offset losses due to crop moisture usage and normal-to-above-normal summer temperatures. The balance of the region would probably see even less. The next chance for showers shows up on today's U.S. global forecast model on or about next Wednesday night or Thursday and looks to be of a similar nature to the first system. This means some moisture for north and east areas, but little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures next week average from normal to well-above normal.

The pattern over the U.S. region continues to show potential for strong ridging in the western areas. This ridge extends northward to reach into the southwest and central Canadian Prairies at times and is likely the reason for the current drought pattern in the area, and also why this drought pattern would continue. Prospects for crops in the area will likely decline during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

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