Ag Weather Forum

SW Plains Blizzard; Rain For Brazil

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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The graphic cutline on the home page of the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, Texas Sunday morning December 27 is as stark as it can be: "Crippling Blizzard to Impact the Panhandles". Forecast details include total snowfall Sunday into Monday of from nine to thirteen inches, wind speeds of 35-45 mph, and snow drifts piling up to ten feet deep. Livestock performance and travel are going to be notably affected. It will be interesting to see how the cattle market reacts to this winter storm situation.

Meanwhile, farther north and east, both ice and snow are indicated for southern through eastern Kansas. This brings notable transportation and safety danger along with power outage threats. This snow area extends northeast to the Great Lakes.

Flood threats are also part of this large-scale, complex system. From the southeastern Plains in Oklahoma and northeastern Texas north to central Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and east to the Delta, heavy rain of up to three to four inches brings a big threat of flooding. For some areas, this latest heavy rain event would be the third or fourth time this calendar year that this kind of bombastic rainfall has occurred.

The commodity market's view of this heavy snow and rain storm in the U.S. may be confined to attention on the situation in the southwestern Plains feedlot areas, with some local cash grain basis impact as well. There is a more prominent market weather feature occurring in South America, however. Forecast charts indicate rainfall of more than four inches across central and northeastern Brazil soybean areas during the next week to ten days--including all of Mato Grosso state. This is the best rain outlook we have seen in the northern Brazil soybean areas all month, and it would be a "just in time" event for flowering and pod-setting soybeans. It would not be a surprise to see the trade take a bearish stance on soybean prices because of this forecast.


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Jay Mcginnis
12/28/2015 | 6:47 AM CST
Spring has sprung in the East, last week we had temps in the 70's, 50's overnight, everything is popping, cherry blossoms in DC, fruit growers seeing buds pushing, leaves starting to push out. I had to mow my lawn for the first time! No sign of climate change here, just a typical first week of spring since Dec 21!
Bryce Anderson
12/27/2015 | 8:50 AM CST
Also--the Australia SOI Sunday Dec 27: 30-day -9.06; 90-day -10.70; Daily -2.80. El Nino continues to act as if it has maxed out.