Ag Weather Forum

Chilly weather is finally taking hold across Western Canada, inevitable for this time of year. Freezes have made their way through all areas; the majority of crops has been harvested or will soon be. Weather played a major role in the excellent crop this season, even though the outlook a few months ago was not very good.

The second half of summer and fall were about as good as it gets for the region with respect to temperature and rainfall allowing crops to recover from the slow start. Fall harvest was able to progress at a rapid pace due to above-average temperatures and less-than-average number of rainy, harvest-delaying days. A late first frost and freeze for most all areas also helped any late-maturing crop to finish their cycle.

With most crops now harvested and the 2013 growing season winding down, we can begin to take a peek at what the late fall and winter might offer for the region. In the short term, we see a continuation of mostly good weather for any remaining harvest during the next week or so even though temperatures will be a little lower than normal at times. A wet weather maker should push northward through Manitoba this weekend and bring rain, wind, and possibly some mixed snow and rain, likely delaying any remaining harvest and fall fieldwork activities.

Some of the early signals from global patterns would suggest that the remainder of fall might see some increase in cool or cold weather for the eastern Prairies at times while the west sees more moderate temperatures. So far, there are no signs of a significant snowfall for the region, something that can start to happen during mid or late October.

The November outlook that is produced daily by one of the U.S. climate models has been pretty consistent in showing somewhat lower-than-normal temperatures for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while Alberta weather remains milder. This same model implies precipitation may be near to above normal.

Environment Canada's forecasts for November through January are showing milder-than-normal weather more likely for eastern Canada but with no major difference from normal for western Canada. Precipitation forecasts for the Prairies during this period also show no major difference from normal. The U.S. version of these seasonal outlooks shows a little higher chance that the eastern Prairies will see lower-than-normal temperatures than the west, while precipitation stays within the normal range.

During the next few weeks we should begin to gain more clues as to where the new winter weather pattern will go. October and November typically produce some advance notice as to what the winter, at least the early portion, may hold.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@telventdtn.com

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