Ag Weather Forum

OMAHA (DTN) -- Lower temperatures, and a season when most of the Corn Belt is drought-free, have restored confidence to the market about huge production this year.

Projections for corn output run anywhere from 13.5 billion bushels to more than 14 billion bushels.

Contributing to this optimism is the last month has been much cooler in most of the Corn Belt compared to July last year. For example, the average high temperature for July 2013 at Omaha's Eppley Airfield was 88 degrees Fahrenheit (through July 27). In 2012, July's average high was 96 F.

That relative cooling is evident throughout the Midwest. A review of July 2013 temperatures through late July by Informa Economics finds that a weighted average of temperatures in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa is about one degree Fahrenheit above normal -- the coolest July in the past four seasons. July 2010 in those three states was 1.5 degrees F above normal; July 2011, 4.1 degrees F above normal; and the blistering July 2012 was 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Looking ahead to August, more mild conditions are forecast. This is important for corn because of late pollination after heavy rain delayed spring planting.

"I believe August this year will be better than 2012," said Nebraska State Climatologist Al Dutcher. "Crop status is much better at this stage than a year ago. We have seen some heat during the initial corn pollination, but it was not extreme. Also, we have not seen the harsh winds that we had last year."

A major feature during summer 2013 is that hot-weather high pressure, which parked over the Plains and western Midwest last year, has not done so during this summer.

"Instead of the (high pressure) ridge parked over the middle of the U.S. like 2012 and being steady, it's been farther west but not as steady overall. That's why temps have been more moderate," said South Dakota State Climatologist Dennis Todey. "We've seen a more northerly (upper air) flow. So while there's been some dryness, it hasn't been incredibly hot like last year."

As far as the possibility for August to exhibit a completely opposite trend weather-wise, prospects for such a turnaround are minimal. DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino sees limited chances for a build-up of stressful heat.

"Due to the location of subtropical high pressure over the southwest U.S. and (low pressure) trough over the eastern Midwest, temperatures with this pattern throughout the central U.S. will not be hot," Palmerino said. "There is uncertainty as to how much (rain) will fall in some of the dry areas of the western Midwest ... however, (forecast) guidance is indicating an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the drier areas as we move through the first part of August."

The corn market has taken note of this milder trend. For the week ending July 27, September corn futures were 52 cents a bushel lower, and deferred corn futures (new-crop contracts) fell by 24 cents.

"December corn ... has shown the bearish effects with new recent lows, signs that the market may have largely given up on worries of intense heat wilting the late-planted crops," said DTN Grain Analyst Todd Hultman. Hultman said that even a delayed pace to pollination in the northern Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota) is not causing concern in the market.

"The market is not looking that far ahead (to first frost) and remains under bearish pressure from the favorable crop conditions that we are currently seeing," he said.

As far as early freeze chances are concerned, they are low. The trend over time has been for a later arrival of freezing temperatures, said Todey.

However, the next two weeks will offer more perspective and focus on the chances for the end-of-the-season freezing weather to show up before corn can fully mature. "Problems could be if there's a couple weeks of below-normal temperatures and progress goes behind again," said Dutcher. "And north-central Iowa into Minnesota -- it would take an incredibly late freeze to avoid problems."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

(ES/AG)

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