Ag Weather Forum

One of our Iowa subscribers sent a note in asking for my thoughts on the year 2013 compared to 1947. That year has been brought up in discussion, notably because the snowstorm during the first week in May was the first such occurrence in much of Iowa since 1947. So, there is that basis for reference.

However, in terms of the planting season (or lack of it) up to this point, I don’t think we need to go back 66 years to find similar circumstances to what we have this year. I think all we have to do is look at the previous five years. When we do, we find such years as the wet springs of 2008 and 2011. I say that in general, because I know that wet conditions and flooding in 2013 are not nearly as extensive as those years. Still, when you look at planting progress, we are actually seeing a slower pace this year than back in 2008 and 2011.

These years are also instructive because of the final corn yields that were tallied. Those two years had far different growing season histories:

In 2008, the Midwest had a very mild, almost cool, mid to late summer with yields performing very well—corn averaged 153.9 bushels an acre, at that time the 2nd highest yield on record. Contrast that with 2011, when mid to late summer featured blistering hot and dry conditions (my DTN article on this situation was one of the first to use the phrase “flash drought”). Corn yields reflected this untimely hot and dry trend; yields slid to 147.2 bushels an acre.

The widely different outcomes in those two years--both well within recent memory--are, in my view, instructive of the two different tracks that we could see this growing season. We don't need to go back 60-some years; all we need to do is see what's happened in less than a decade.

For reference, here are some planting progress figures for the first week in May for 2008, 2011 and 2013 for the U.S. and Iowa (since Iowa was the source of the original question).

Planting progress---

5/4/08 US 27 pct Iowa 18 pct

5/2/11 US 13 pct Iowa 8 pct

5/6/13 US 12 pct Iowa 8 pct

Bryce

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