Ag Policy Blog

Former President Donald Trump on Sunday took to Truth Social to remind Iowa farmers about his four years in office.

"No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it's not even close. All polls, except for the one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up. BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP BY 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!"

In a presidential race full of twists and turns, as well as shock and awe moments, the release Saturday of the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll was one more late fourth-quarter surprise. The poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer "shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states."

A separate poll by Emerson College also released on Saturday puts Trump ahead of Harris 54% to 45% in Iowa. Both polls had surveyed roughly 800 voters.

The election appears to be close right up to the end. The website 538.com, which aggregates polls, stated Harris and Trump each have an "even chance" to win the presidency. In 100 simulations, Trump won 53 times and Harris won 46 times. 538 stated there is a less than 1% chance that neither candidate wins the Electoral College.

Until the Iowa Poll, no polling had put Iowa's six electoral votes up for grabs as a potential battleground state on Tuesday. Iowa was slotted for Trump to the point that Trump hasn't visited Iowa since January, though Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance attended a Des Moines fundraiser last month.

Iowa was not on the Harris team's scorecard. She hasn't visited Iowa since July 2023. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has campaigned twice in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District to secure that lone electoral vote, but he hasn't been in Iowa since August.

Selzer's polling comes with a margin of error of 3.4%, which basically puts the race in the state as close as any of the seven toss-up states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Beyond the Iowa Poll, no other polling has pointed to any other "non-battleground" state shifting from red to blue, or vice versa.

Iowa has become more Republican over the past decade. Voters backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. The state now has only one statewide Democratic officeholder, an all-Republican congressional delegation, and Republican supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

But former President Barack Obama also carries Iowa in 2008 and 2012 when the state had battleground status.

Trump, in his social media post, also saw Iowa strictly through the lens of farmers. Iowa has 89,000 farms, but has 2.3 million registered voters. There are as many people who work in health care, 235,000, as work in agriculture.

If anyone were catching the airwaves in Iowa cities such as Des Moines, campaign ads focus heavily on abortion and reproductive rights, along with access to health care and border security.

The Iowa Poll suggests Harris has a wide advantage over Trump with independent women voters who support Harris by a 28-point margin. Independent men support Trump, but by a narrower margin. Women over age 65 also back Harris by a wide margin over Trump.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, initially backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucuses, but endorsed Trump. On X, Reynolds responded to the poll.

"Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades, and have increased our voter registration advantage by 130,000(plus).

"President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends. Let's prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!"

IOWA POLL HISTORY

While Trump said Selzer "was totally wrong the last time," Selzer's final poll in 2020 had Trump with a 7-point lead over President Joe Biden. Trump carried the state by an 8-point spread.

The last time the Iowa Poll was wrong – in a presidential race -- was in 2004 for when Selzer's numbers gave John Kerry the lead over former President George W. Bush, the Des Moines Register noted.

INCUMBENT HOUSE MEMBERS CHALLENGED

Reflecting a return to purple, the Des Moines Register poll also indicates two of the state's four GOP House members are trailing as well. Rep. Zach Nunn in central Iowa trails Democrat Lanon Baccam by 7 points in central Iowa's 3rd Congressional District where Republicans have a 17,000 advantage in party affiliation. In eastern Iowa, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is down as much as 16 points to Democrat Christina Bohannan even though Republicans have a 20,000 edge in voter registration in the 1st Congressional District. Nationally, both of these races are viewed as toss-ups.

RURAL/URBAN SPLIT

As DTN/The Progressive Farmer highlighted in the Pulse of Rural America poll, Trump has a commanding lead among farmers and rural voters. The survey of 1,393 rural Americans showed Trump with nearly 70% of support while Harris had 19%. The Pulse of Rural America poll showed Trump's backing among rural voters continues to strengthen each election cycle since 2016.

See, "Pulse of Rural America," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Also see, Des Moines Register Iowa Poll https://www.desmoinesregister.com/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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