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  • MGEX spring wheat futures for December delivery continue to hold in range-bound trade, although remain close to unchanged this week. The middle study shows the Dec/March spread narrowing this week, a sign of supportive commercial activity, while the lower study shows HRS gaining strength relative to HRW. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Spring wheat continues to hold in range-bound trade, supported by commercial buying interest while gains are limited by technical selling. Futures spreads and the HRS/HRW spread suggest that this market bears watching.

  • This chart shows the trend in the harvest progress achieved in Manitoba over the past four weeks for the four largest crops in terms of acres left to be harvested, given a combination of Statistics Canada's harvested acre estimates along with Manitoba Agriculture's harvest progress estimates. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    While perhaps not struggling as much as the western Prairies, Manitoba's harvest is also dragged out far longer than wished for as producers fight to take off the final 20% of the province's crop.

  • A reported 10,926 metric tons of canary seed was reported shipped for August, the largest volume shipped in three months, 14.7 percent higher than the same month in 2017/18 and 95 percent of the five-year average. (DTN photo by Elaine Shein)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canada reached a trade surplus with the world in August for the first time since December 2016, with lower imports and exports of all merchandise reported for the month. Here is a look at data reported for miscellaneous agriculture products.

  • The Saskatchewan government released new crop yield estimates as of Oct. 1, shown here for selected crops (brown bars), which compare to the most recent Statistics Canada estimates (blue bars) and the five-year average reported by Statistics Canada (grey bars). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Saskatchewan's weekly crop report included yield estimates as of Oct. 1, updating the last estimates released on Aug. 27. While yields for most crops are expected to fall below average, estimates for a few crops are reported higher than recent Statistics Canada findings.

  • December oats have returned to a near-test of the high reached on Aug. 9, ending higher for the sixth consecutive day on Tuesday. The first study shows the Dec/March spread moving into a bulling inverse this week, ending at 4 cents on Wednesday. The lower study shows latest CFTC data with investors holding a modest bullish position. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    December oats finished higher on Wednesday for the sixth consecutive session, while falling just short of a test of the contract's Aug. 9 high. U.S. 2018 production has been estimated below levels used in recent supply and demand reports, while over 40% of Canada's estimated...

  • December spring wheat rallied 14 1/4 cents on Tuesday to reach a three-week high, while facing technical resistance between Tuesday’s close and the $6 level. The line on the first study represents the Dec/March spread, which has narrowed 2 cents so far this week, a sign of supportive commercial activity. The histogram in the lower study shows that noncommercial  traders have been noncommittal for eight weeks and short covering could help fuel a move higher. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    December spring wheat reached a three-week high on Tuesday, leading all other grain markets to a higher close. A number of technical resistance levels lie in the contract's path, with the need to break above psychological resistance at $6/bushel.

  • Canada's spot dollar closed 81 points higher on Monday, reaching its highest level in more than four months. Today's move took out resistance at $.77903 CAD/USD, which could open the door to a move to $.78807. The lower-study shows a less-bearish approach taken by noncommercial traders, who reduced their net-short futures holdings for the first time in four weeks, as of Sept. 25 data. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The Canadian dollar surged 81 basis points on Monday, reaching its highest level in more than four months. Higher crude prices, the removal of uncertainty surrounding trade with the U.S. and expectations that rate hikes may take place sooner than expected are behind the...

  • Alberta Agriculture reports that the province's harvest has stalled at 32.9% complete as of Sept. 25, with the cumulative pace veering right on the chart and falling further behind the 2017 and five-year average pace. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Unfavorable weather has left Alberta's harvest at a near standstill over the past week, with all regions behind their respective average pace of harvest. Between Alberta and Saskatchewan, roughly 54% of the country's canola crop and 45% of the county's spring wheat crop are...

  • Based on Statistics Canada's production estimates by province, along with Saskatchewan Agriculture's estimates of harvest acres as of Sept. 24, the blue bars represents the estimated volume pending harvest in the province for selected crops, while the brown line with markers points to the percent this volume represents of the country's crop, plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN Graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Saskatchewan's harvest progress was limited for the second straight week. Given Statistics Canada's production estimates along with Saskatchewan Agriculture's estimated harvest progress, we look at the approximate volumes to be harvested along with the percentage of the...

  • This chart highlights cash soybean prices reported by ProphetX for one particular location in southern Manitoba (blue line) along with single point in North Dakota (red line), in U.S. dollars. The Manitoba location moved higher as of July 11, while the USD spread grew to $1.60/bushel or $58.79/mt on Tuesday (green line, lower study). (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    On Tuesday of this week, the price spread between a chosen soybean delivery point in Manitoba and a chosen location in North Dakota widened to $1.60 USD, favoring delivery on the Canadian side. This spread has been trending wider since mid-June.

  • As of Week 7, a combination of CN and CP hopper cars supplied as a percentage of the cars ordered is the highest percentage of the three years looked at (2016/17 to 2018/19) at 95% in total. Superior results seen in the high-volume, Vancouver bulk, Thunder Bay and Prince Rupert corridors, while performance trails the past two years in the other three corridors. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    A combination of CN and CP data shows the railways have spotted a higher percentage of the cars ordered in the first seven weeks of the crop year relative to recent years. These statistics show the high volume shipping corridors of Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Thunder Bay...

  • November canola bounced from the $485 level this week, which is the 75% retracement of the move from the November contract's August low to May high. The contract realized a modest loss of $1.20 per metric ton over the week in higher-volume trade with signs of light commercial selling, given the Nov/Jan spread ending $0.10 weaker over the week at minus $6.80/mt (second study). (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    While soybeans and soybean oil finished higher over the course of the week, canola futures closed modestly lower. The Nov/Jan spread finished close to unchanged this week, with commercial traders remaining neutral given the news that flowed this week.