South America Calling

It has been a dry couple of weeks in central Brazil. Between Sept. 24 and Oct. 8, very few showers were recorded in the region and mostly around the Amazon rainforest. However, over the last couple of days, showers have been dotting the region and are in the midst of becoming more scattered across the region, something we typically see for mid-October.

This would normally be a very late start to the wet season in central Brazil. However, in the Sept. 21-23 timeframe, a front slowly pushed through the region, bringing 25-75 millimeters (about 1-3 inches) of rainfall. Some would count that as the official start to the wet season rain. Others wouldn't, citing that it was due to a front and not the monsoonal-type of flow from the north that brings in more moisture and leads to widespread pop-up showers.

But because of that early rainfall, producers there got out and began planting in earnest. And the dryness that followed made progress go very quickly. Without showers to dodge, producers got a significant head start in soybean planting. As of Oct. 3, the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producer of both soybeans and corn, recorded 15% of their soybean planting had been completed, a vast increase from the five-year average of just 6%. That number is likely to run well ahead of the normal pace for the rest of the planting season that occurs through early November. And with the rainfall now starting to increase like it usually does this time of year, early growth should be on good footing.

There was some concern the two weeks of heat and dryness would cause early-planted seedlings to die out and need to be replanted, but there have been no significant reports of that happening. Instead, producers on X are showing off their early seedlings that look green and healthy, ready for the rainfall to bring good growing conditions for the next few months.

But just because the rains are returning does not mean they will be even or supportive of growth. These rains are always scattered, sometimes missing areas for several weeks at a time before hitting them every day for an extended period. That variability may still disrupt growth patterns, especially for those early-planted soybeans. If they do not find the showers to be overly widespread, there could still be a need to replant.

Despite all that, those risks are now decreasing. The wet season is underway, and producers are ahead of schedule on planting. That bodes well for this year's soybean crop. But it also keeps a wide-open window to the second-season (safrinha) corn crop that will start to be planted immediately following the soybean harvest in late January and February.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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