South America Calling

As mentioned last week (https://www.dtnpf.com/…), the official start to the wet season in central Brazil came about on time and producers took advantage by getting a quick start on planting their soybeans. Dry weather since then has allowed that progress to continue. However, that also threatens the crop if rains do not come quickly.

Those early showers came through with a front and dropped 25-75 millimeters (about 1-3 inches) across the region early last week. That got central Brazil producers out in full force. Since then, planting progress has soared. According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, IMEA, planting progress is the quickest in at least the last five years. At just over 15% completed as of Oct. 3, it quickly outpaces last year at just over 2% and the five-year average of just over 6%. All regions of the state except for the Northeast and Southeast are over 12% complete. The agency expects 13 million hectares, about 32 million acres, of its land to be planted this season. That is about the same acreage of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana combined according to USDA estimates.

Producers in central Brazil have a very short window in which to plant soybeans to ensure they can double crop with corn or cotton in early 2026, dubbed the safrinha crop. Timely starts to the wet season are necessary after four or more months of almost complete dryness in the region. With little moisture left in the soil, producers generally wait for the first 50 mm (2 inches) or so to begin planting, ensuring that there is enough moisture around for crops to germinate evenly.

Usually, that first 50 mm is in the midst of near-daily rainfall as wet season rains fill in and become consistent by the middle of October. However, this year is a little different. That wave of rain that brought the start to the wet season has since dried out. Very few areas have seen rain continuing after Sept. 24 and most areas have been completely dry. Those that did not take advantage immediately following the rainfall are at serious risk of poor germination or dying of seedlings in the 30-degree Celsius heat (90s Fahrenheit).

Models are not very optimistic for some time yet, either. Though some spotty showers may dot the region, there is little opportunity for organized or even scattered rainfall that would put producers at ease about their crop situation through next week. A front will largely stall over southern Brazil Oct. 7-9 with scattered showers, but is not forecast to move northward.

Models are more indicative of rainfall filling in Oct. 12-15 either by normal monsoon processes for the wet season, or by another front moving in during that period. However, that could be a solid three weeks of no rainfall after planting in some areas. This may be a situation that would call for replanting of significant acres of soybeans should those rains not pop up as expected, creating further delays and hardship for producers in the middle of the country. This situation bears watching over the next couple of weeks.

The delay of the wet season is typical during a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean. While not officially in the event, where sea-surface temperatures are at least 0.5 degrees C below average, readings are on the edge of that occurring. This may be a reason why drier conditions have extended beyond the usual time frame into the first half of October. Another impact of La Nina is to dry out Argentina and southern Brazil, a fate more likely to take hold closer starting in December. Weather is likely to be a significant threat to agriculture in South America this season.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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