Fundamentally Speaking

Historical End of July Soybean Crop Ratings

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

As noted in prior posts, U.S. soybean conditions are running the worst since 2012 though they are quite a bit better now than they were back then.

This graphic is similar to one we did on corn and shows the end of July soybean crop conditions for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. from 1986 to 2019 on the left hand axis.

We use our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results.

On the right hand axis is the percent the states 2019 rating differs from the 1986-2018 average.

Also reported at the bottom in the blue circles is the 2019 rank of end of July crop conditions for the period 1986 to 2019.

A 1 ranking is the best meaning that 2019 is the highest rated crop going back to 1986 while a 34 rating means 2019 has the worst conditions since 1986.

To start off only five of the top 18 producing states have 2019 ratings above their respective 2018 levels including KS, LA, MO, NC and TN.

As far as percent difference from the average, Ohio is the worst at down 15.9% from the average as their current end of July conditions are the third worst since 1986.

Ohio is followed up by Indiana at 13.0% off their average with the fourth worst crop, Illinois at 10.0% off from their average also with its fourth worst rated crop and then Michigan at 8.9% off its average with its sixth lowest rated crop.

Kansas and South Dakota are not faring too well either.

As opposed to the Eastern Corn Belt, the soybean crop conditions are much better as of the end of July.

Such is the case in Tennessee where their end of July rating is 7.5% above average with its tenth based crop rating rate crop rating and Louisiana also seeing its rating 4.9% above its average.

For the U.S. as a whole end of July 2019 ratings are 2.9% below average and other than 2012 having the lowest national rating since 2006 with the crop the seventh worst rated since 1986.



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