Despite competition for tight canola supplies as we near the end of the 2021-22 crop year, Canada's canola crush increased in June to 660,215 metric tons (mt), the first monthly increase in three months. June crush was down 20.4% from the same month in 2021 and 18.4% below the three-year average and is well above the volume needed this month to reach the current AAFC forecast of 8.3 million metric tons (mmt), as seen by the blue bar for June above the green line on the accompanying chart.
Roughly 519,000 mt needs to be crushed in July to meet the government forecast of 8.3 mmt, while the Canadian Grain Commisssion reports 370,500 mt of domestic disappearance in week 49 and 50 combined, and the week 50 report shows 171,200 mt of inventory instore at process elevators.
AAFC's July supply and demand forecasts included a 300,000 mt upward revision in the crush forecast for 2022-23 to 9.3 mmt, or 1 mmt higher than the current crop year. The most recent forecast points to an expected return to an equal sharing of supplies between crushers and exporters, or 9 mmt exported and 9.3 mmt crushed. This forecast involves a 75% increase in exports, year-over-year, or 3.850 mmt, along with a more modest 12% increase in crush. This bears watching.
This month's report also includes the June soybean crush reported at 136,398 mt, the smallest monthly crush in nine months. Cumulative crush over the September through June period totals 1.556 mmt, up 14% from one year ago while 2.1% higher than the three-year average. To achieve AAFC's current 1.8 mmt forecast for 2021-22 crush, roughly 245,000 mt must be crushed in total over the remaining two months of the crop year. As of week 50, the CGC reported no soybean inventory instore process elevators.
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