Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reports that Canada's merchandise exports rose 4.1% in April for a fifth consecutive increase, while imports dipped .7%. Canada's merchandise trade surplus ballooned from $2.2 billion to $5 billion, the largest surplus seen since August 2008.

Exports of energy products reached an all-time high in May, accounting for 29.8% of total exports. Statistics Canada commentary also points to a 34.9% increase in potash exports during the month.

The following is import/export data for select crops and products, with a focus on crops where Statistics Canada data provides increased insight over the weekly Canadian Grain Commission data.

Canada's lentil exports totaled 248,163 metric tons (mt) in May, the largest monthly movement in eight months while the largest May volume shipped in seven years. The largest share, or 57.3% of the total, was shipped to Turkey. Cumulative exports for the crop year total 1.291 million metric tons (mmt), down 34.5% from the same period one year ago, while down 31.3% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 86% of AAFC's 1.5 mmt forecast, ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Chickpea exports were reported at 28,286 mt in May, the largest monthly volume shipped since November 2017. The largest share, or 41% of the total, was shipped to Pakistan. Cumulative exports of 133,326 mt are up 5% from the same period last crop year while up 22% from the five-year average. Cumulative sales have reached 83.3% of the government's export forecast of 160,000 mt, while on track to reach this volume.

Canada exported 98,440 mt of dry peas in May, the smallest volume shipped in three months. A reported 34.5% of this volume was shipped to the U.S. The volume shipped to China is reported at 20,480 mt, the smallest volume shipped to China in four months, while well below the 174,898 mt shipped in May 2021. Cumulative shipments to China are down 1.5 mmt from the same period in 2020-21. Canada's cumulative exports for 2021-22 total 1.617 mmt, down 51.8% from the same period last crop year and down 47.8% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports account for 77% of AAFC's 2.1 mmt forecast, while behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard exports in May totaled 9,355 mt, the smallest volume shipped in three months, with roughly one-third of this volume shipped to the U.S. Cumulative exports total 91,296 mt, down 2.6% from last year and down 7% from the five-year average. Total exports already exceed the 85,000 mt export forecast for the crop year with June/July data yet to come.

Canary seed exports totaled 16,162 mt in May, up slightly from the previous month. The largest destination was Mexico, with 28% of the total volume shipped to this destination, while close to half of the volume, or 46%, was shipped to Mexico, Spain and Columbia. Cumulative exports total 143,052 mt, up 5.7% from the same period last crop year and 7.1% above the five-year average. Cumulative exports remain above the 130,000 mt forecast released by AAFC in June.

Soybean exports totaled 273,995 mt in May, the largest monthly volume shipped in four months, while the largest May volume shipped in at least 10 years. A reported 24% of this volume was shipped to Iran, while another 21% was shipped to Bangladesh, the two largest destinations. Cumulative exports total 3.851 mmt, down 6% from 2020-21 and down 1.7% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 96.3% of AAFC's 4 mmt export forecast, with data for three months pending.

Flax exports in May reached 12,165 mt, the smallest volume shipped in eight months. A reported 69% of this volume was shipped to the United States. Exports to China did not register this month, while cumulative exports are seen at 31,789 mt so far this crop year, compared to 180,720 mt shipped in the same period of 2020-21. Cumulative exports of 194,038 mt are down 58.6% from the same period last crop year and down 50.4% from the five-year average. This volume has reached 68% of AAFC's 285,000 mt export forecast, behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn exports totaled 290,825 mt in May, down from the previous month while the second-largest monthly volume shipped in 2021-22. One-third of this volume was shipped to Spain, while 88% of this volume was shipped to Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Cumulative exports total 1.462 mmt, up 30% from the same period last crop year and 51% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 83.5% of the current 1.750 mmt forecast from AAFC, while ahead of the pace needed to reach this volume with three months remaining in the row-crop crop year.

During the same month, corn imports are reported at 598,352 mt, up slightly from the previous month. Over nine months of the corn crop year (September through May), imports total 4.855 mmt, which leads to many questions. AAFC's June forecast continues to forecast crop year imports of 4.4 mmt, the USDA's June WASDE has estimated Canada's total corn imports at 3.8 mmt, while the USDA's most recent sales report shows 3.259 mmt of exports to Canada and open sales at 576,300 mt, which covers activity from Sept. 1 through June 23.

Canola oil exports slipped slightly from the previous month in volume terms, reported at 222,406 mt. Cumulative exports are shown at 2.130 mmt, down 25% from the same period last year while down 23% from the three-year average.

Canola meal exports fell to 319,823 mt, the lowest volume shipped in three months. Cumulative meal shipments total 3.772 mmt, down 14.5% from last year and down 8% from the three-year average.

Canada imported a record 155 million liters of ethanol in the month of May. The U.S. Census Bureau reports exports to Canada representing 28% of all exports, or the top destination for U.S. product. Over the first five months of 2022, Canada has imported 646 million liters, which is up 52.7% from the same period in 2021 and 44.6% higher than the five-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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