March Canola Crush Recovers
Statistics Canada reported 739,879 metric tons of canola was crushed in March, up from 629,153 mt crushed in the previous month and the first month-over-month increase seen in five months to the largest volume crushed in four months. This volume is down 22.8% from the same month in 2020-21 when an all-time record of 957,952 mt was crushed, while 13.4% below the three-year average for this period. At the same time, it remains solidly above the roughly 683,500 mt needed this month in order to remain on track to achieve the 8.5 million metric ton crush target set by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Over eight months of the 2021-22 crop year, the crush totals 5.823 mmt, down 17.3% from the same period in the previous crop year. At the same time, this volume is close to 156,000 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current government forecast of 8.5 mmt. Over the four remaining months of the crop year, an average crush totaling roughly 669,000 mt/month is needed to achieve the current AAFC forecast of 8.5 mmt, although activity may be limited by available supplies.
As seen on the attached chart, the reported oil content is down slightly at 41.7% but has remained mostly steady over five months. The three-year average for the month of March is 43.6% (grey line on the attached chart), while the difference represents production of 14,019 mt of oil this month, or roughly 161,500 mt on the 8.5 mmt forecast for the entire crop year.
Today's report shows 167,333 mt of soybeans crush in Canada in March, the largest monthly crush seen since July 2019. This volume is well above the 119,000 mt needed this month to stay on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.8 mmt for 2021-22 (September to August).
Canada's cumulative soybean crush is seen at 1.086 mmt over seven months (September to March), up 7.7% from the same period in 2020-21 and 1.4% below the three-year average.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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