Canada exported 122,200 metric tons of durum in week 42, or the week ending May 23, the highest volume shipped in three weeks. During the first 42 weeks or 81% of the crop year, cumulative exports total 5.2245 mmt, up 24.9% from the same period in 2019-20 and 42% higher than the three-year average.
For seven consecutive months, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has revised its durum export forecast higher each month, increasing from 5.3 mmt in October to 5.7 mmt in the most recent May forecast. With 10 shipping weeks left in the crop year, having shipped an average of 149,000/week during the past 10 weeks, exports are sure to blow through the current forecast and test available supplies.
During the past five years, an average of 80% of crop year exports have been achieved as of the Canadian Grain Commission's week 42 report of licensed exports. Projecting this pace forward points to exports of 6.5 mmt, an increase from the current forecast that would drive stocks to zero based on current estimates.
Based on current government estimates, 76% of available supplies (2019-20 July 31 farm stocks plus 2020 estimated production) has been delivered into licensed facilities as of week 42, up from 68% in the same period in 2019-20 and the three-year average of 58%.
According to pdqinfo data for the southern Prairies, durum prices (No. 1 CWAD 13%) increased from $1.50 to $3.30/mt so far this week as of May 27 to range from $302.61 to $309.75/bu, down from crop year highs of $312/mt to $320/mt reached across these three regions in previous months.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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