Canada's soybean stocks for 2017-18 were estimated at what is likely a record 651,000 metric tons, while the latest Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates show the potential for a modest increase in the current 2018-19 crop year of 670,000 mt, although this forecast may be challenged.
A late surge in shipments, as seen in the Canadian Grain Commission's week 1 data (Aug. 1-11), shows 164,000 mt realized for the period, which is the largest weekly volume shipped since late December, a volume that has increased in five of the past six weeks.
August is not known for its soybean exports, with tight year-ending stocks averaging just 416,200 mt over the past five years and posing a challenge in putting together volume for export ahead of the new-crop harvest. Over the past five years, Statistics Canada data points to an average of 105,000 mt exported in August.
While there are no obvious trends seen in Canada's soybean movement, the June Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour report shows exports to Bangladesh being the highest volume movement for the month, with 76,500 mt shipped for the month or 52.2% of the monthly volume. At the same time, there is a media report of small volumes of canola sold to China, which could be viewed as a potential thawing of relations and could also signal a return of China for Canadian soybeans, which bears watching.
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