Canada Markets

USDA's Global Rapeseed/Canola Estimates Over Time

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the evolution of the USDA's estimates for global canola/rapeseed production and use for 2018/19 since the month of May, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line with markers represents the estimated global carryout, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The data on the attached chart is pulled from the USDA's monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report, while showing the evolution of estimates since the first 2018/19 estimates were released in May.

Tuesday's December report saw the USDA's global production estimate fall for the second straight month to 70.217 million metric tons, while also falling for the fifth time in six months. The production estimate (blue bars against the primary vertical axis) reached a monthly high of 75.081 mmt in June.

Estimated global use or disappearance has been revised lower over the same period, reaching an estimated high of 75.26 mmt in June while reported at 70.652 mmt this month, as shown by the brown bars as measured against the primary vertical axis. This month's estimates shows global production falling short of demand by 435,000 mt, the largest shortfall shown in four months.

It is interesting to note that while the USDA seemed to follow Statistics Canada's lead in revising Canada's all-wheat production higher, while also revising Canada's corn production estimate lower, the USDA left Canada's canola production unchanged this month at 21.1 mmt, which is 800,000 metric tons higher than Statistics Canada's final production estimate released on Dec. 6.

While Canada's actual production could prove to land somewhere in between these two estimates, should actual production fall closer to the Canadian estimates, global estimates could face significant revisions ahead.

The black line with markers represents global ending stocks for rapeseed/canola, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. This month's estimate has slipped below 6 mmt for the first time this crop year at 5.972 mmt, while reflects a single-digit stocks/use ratio of 8.5%, which should be viewed as supportive for prices ahead of any potential revisions to Canada's production potential.


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