Ag Weather Forum

As mentioned in blog updates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…, and here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…, we have already had a busy week of significant weather that has gradually shifted from warm and thunderstorms to cool and breezy. But the system that completes the trifecta will be a major winter storm.

A band of incredibly heavy snow, strong winds, severe thunderstorms, and a burst of arctic air are set to move through during the next several days. There are some impacts that are known, but there are still some significant disagreements between models that need to be worked out. Regardless, widespread impacts to infrastructure and travel are anticipated with this monster storm.

TIMING OF THE STORM

Essentially, the event has already started. As of Friday morning, March 13, snow is falling across portions of Montana and South Dakota. This is well ahead of the main energy of the system, which is over British Columbia, Canada, but is a sign that this will be a long-duration event.

The actual low-pressure system is forecast to move out into Wyoming and northern Nebraska on Saturday afternoon, March 14. The low will be strong as it crosses over Iowa into Sunday morning but is forecast to really intensify afterward. Due to cold air plunging down from Canada and extreme warmth ahead from the Gulf, the low-pressure system will arc northeast into Michigan Sunday night and then continue through southeastern Ontario and central Quebec for Monday into Tuesday, March 16-17.

The exact track is still being worked out by models, which is a little unusual for being this close to the main impact period of the event, and these differences will matter. But heavy snow will be located in a fairly wide band north of the storm track, stretching from Montana to Michigan. A secondary band of snow is likely to develop on the backside of the system as the storm system intensifies, but models are unsure about where to develop it and how much snow could occur. Some models develop the low earlier, bringing the band across eastern Nebraska and Kansas through Iowa and Missouri like the GFS model. Others have that developing farther east around Illinois like the European model. Either way, this secondary band could bring a widespread band of moderate snow late Sunday into Monday.

That is also the time that winds should increase significantly with the storm. Again, there is uncertainty, but wind gusts of 35-55 mph will be possible depending on location for Sunday and Monday. Where that coincides with snow is likely to produce blizzard conditions, which may stretch across much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday, and the Great Lakes on Monday.

Going to the warmer side of the storm system, the cold front is likely to tap into an extreme difference in temperature and moisture to produce a line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms around the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Storms are likely to weaken overnight but could still be severe as they move to the Appalachians and East Coast for Monday.

That cold front will be followed by a burst of cold air that will feel like we're back in winter. Winds still blowing that cold air over the Great Lakes will mean additional lake-effect snow into Tuesday.

PRIMARY SNOW BAND NOT LOCKED IN, CHANGES STILL OCCURRING

The primary snow band is forecast to stretch from Montana through northern Michigan. When all is said and done, the amounts could end up breaking records in some areas. Either daily, storm total, or all-time records for March are on the table from Minnesota to Michigan. The forecast is calling for a truly intense band of snow and models have not budged on their extreme totals.

This has been a well-advertised band of heavy snow, being blasted across social media platforms from amateur meteorologists all week long. Early this week, models were producing ridiculously high totals, which is actually fairly typical for being more than five days out. However, during the last couple of days, they have failed to significantly reduce those amounts. Typically, as the event nears and the models lock into a forecast, they do so with perhaps high, but reasonable amounts.

This storm is different. Some models have had maximum forecasts of almost 4 feet of total snow over portions of Wisconsin and Michigan. That has come down and is slightly more reasonable, but still in a historically high 24- to 36-inch range at the peak. More than likely, those amounts will not be fully realized, but amounts over 24 inches are certainly on the table for northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, partly due to enhancement from the Great Lakes. Farther back across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota, the band is capable of producing more than 12 inches, especially in Minnesota where totals may still creep up to 18 inches. Meanwhile, western South Dakota and Montana may still see patchy amounts over 8 inches.

What is more concerning than the amounts is that the location of the band is still changing in the models. Typically, by this time models have locked in on the location, though some small variations would still be possible. However, a significant northerly shift in the band has been occurring since midday Thursday that calls into question just where this band of heavy snow will set up.

For instance, Minneapolis, which was on the northern edge of the band on Thursday afternoon, shifted to the middle of the band Thursday night, but now is on the southern edge of the band of some of the models as of Friday morning. That is a major shift northward of more than 100 miles, which would result in limited snow across southern Minnesota instead of historic amounts. But this is not necessarily a trend. Not all models are producing this trend, leading to fairly high uncertainty with only one day to go before the storm leaves the Rockies. Further model runs are going to be necessary before the National Weather Service starts to change winter storm watches into warnings and constant monitoring will need to be considered by all involved.

South of this primary band, there will likely be a mix of precipitation types, including sleet and maybe some freezing rain. The impact is likely to be thin, but an area of freezing rain, and thus icy conditions, will be possible across southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, northeast through central Michigan. Determining how much ice that will occur is a very difficult task, as the cold air ahead of the system is not very great, and will likely be covered by a secondary band of snow that develops on the backside of the system.

That secondary band of snow is going to be an interesting case as well, and this is producing a greater deal of uncertainty. Getting the amounts right will depend on how this band forms. Earlier development farther west would likely lead to lower totals, but still may come in the 2- to 4-inch range across Iowa and maybe northern Missouri. If it is slower and farther east, the deepening of the low may cause more significant heavy snow across Illinois into southern Wisconsin, on the order of 3-8 inches. There is too much uncertainty to make a call at this time.

Furthermore, the cold air rushing into the South and Southeast may trigger some additional snow showers across the Mid-South through the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Accumulations would be unlikely, but not for the higher elevations of the Appalachians.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST, SOUTH

Before all that cold air comes in though, there is a pool of significantly warm air ahead of the system. Perhaps it will not be as warm as earlier this week, but temperatures in the 60s and 70s Fahrenheit with dew points not too far behind will lead to large instability as the cold front to the system passes through the middle of the country on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center already has an enhanced risk of severe storms from about Memphis to Indianapolis, with a larger slight risk from northeast Texas into far southern Michigan. The focus shifts to North Carolina and Virginia for Monday.

This will likely come as a line of storms, which makes the hazards most likely to be wind. However, because of how strong the cold front is expected to be, there could be little features in that line that could produce some additional risk of tornadoes and hail as well.

BURST OF WINTER COLD FOLLOWS THE STORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Behind that cold front pushing through the severe weather, temperatures will fall like a rock. Arctic air that has been lurking across Canada is on its way down and a drop of about 30-40 degrees is appearing likely initially. Colder air settling in behind the front will leave many areas below freezing for Monday and Tuesday mornings as far south as central Texas and near the Gulf Coast. Up in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, low temperatures for Monday and Tuesday could be below zero, especially where the heavy snow develops.

But Tuesday will also start the turnaround in temperature. Extreme warmth building across the West will bring a sharp warmup to the High Plains as temperatures rebound into the 70s. Temperatures will build from there, spreading east next week and helping to quickly melt a lot of the snow. This will certainly be another wild week of weather for the start of spring.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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