Ag Policy Blog

Let's get serious about 2026 and some of the potential changes likely to shape an ever-changing world of farm policy.

Here's what a mix of analysts, market observers and a former class clown suggest could unfold over the next year. Most of these outcomes are already showing up on your favorite prediction-market app.

House and Senate agriculture committee leaders kick off 2026 by saying farmers and rural America need long-term certainty and vowing to pass a new five-year farm bill by the end of 2027.

Despite record retail prices, President Trump declares high beef prices a "Democratic hoax" after being awarded the Meat Institute's inaugural Peace Prize.

In retaliation for SNAP restrictions, House Democrats introduce legislation prohibiting farmers from spending bridge payments on beer, Carhartt shirts, or King Ranch Edition pickups.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr goes viral after a midnight trip to McDonald's when he's caught ordering a McRib meal with an extra McRib on the side for $1. McDonald's stock jumps, but the MAHA movement collapses as a result.

Grain prices spike after war drones mistakenly identify a Brazilian bulk ship loaded with soybeans as a drug-smuggling boat. Soybean farmers ask Department of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to target a few more Brazilian ships, just to be on the safe side.

USDA opens up its base-acre program and all 30 million acres are certified for rice PLC payments at $250 an acre. Rice becomes the biggest cash crop in 12 states.

Not to be outdone by the Trump Institute for Peace, the Trump-Kennedy Performing Arts Center and Trump-class battleships, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins renames the Department of Agriculture to the Donald J. Trump Department of The Golden Age (DJTDGA).

Elon Musk proposes buying North Dakota to convert the entire state into a data center.

The CFTC approves a new spot derivative allowing farmers to predict how much USDA reports will be revised each month, calling it "price discovery."

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz flips the script on his state's food-aid scandal by declaring everyone in the state is eligible for SNAP benefits, including Canadians passing through Duluth.

Nebraska farmers ask for disaster aid after investing their entire bridge payments on Polymarket, predicting the Cornhusker football team would win nine games in 2026.

Treasury's final 45Z tax credit rule rebrands ethanol as "Clean Trump Fuel," citing it as "patriotic high octane." MAGA supporters discover they can both "own the libs" and OPEC at the same time, pressuring automakers to bring back flex-fuel vehicles -- now marketed exclusively as Trump-Fuel pickups.

Golden Age Secretary Rollins declares the farm safety net "fully modernized" after adding a QR code to its ARC/PLC enrollment form, now renamed the 2027 Golden Age Payments Program (GAPP). Farmers are restricted from using the Golden Age payments for beer, Carhartt shirts, or grilling accessories, but purchases of Trump-Fuel King Ranch Edition pickups are reclassified as "on-farm assets."

The Supreme Court hands down a landmark 6-3 decision declaring birthright citizenship "was never really a thing." DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton is deported to Uganda, where he is named minister of Agriculture after releasing a five-point plan to Make Uganda Healthy Again (MUHA) while boosting farm exports to China. Historians later call it the start of a Golden Age for Uganda's economy.

DISCLAIMER: None of the above scenarios constitute investment advice and should not be used for commodity trading, hedging strategies, prediction markets, sports betting, bridge payments, land values in Uganda, or conversations with your lender.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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