Fundamentally Speaking

Another year of generally good growing conditions was noted in the U.S., resulting in what so far are projected record yields for corn and soybeans and close to that in wheat. This, along with decent weather in other feed producing regions of the globe, pressed grain futures lower -- though beans and its co-products eked out some gains for the year. The accompanying chart shows the annual percent change for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat futures on the left-hand axis, while the two-year percent change is plotted on the right-hand axis. The spot contract has corn down 3.9 % versus the prior year's 2.8% tumble, the third price decline in a row as the two-year decline is off 6.6%. Spot soybeans were up 3.3% following the prior year's 22.9% decline, largest annual percent drop for soybeans since 2008 and the two-year decline is off 20.3%. Spot Chicago wheat was down 4.3% and follows up on a 20.3% decline in 2024. Therefore, the two-year decline is off 19.3%. As for the soy products, spot soybean meal was down 4.3% this year, the third consecutive annual decline and at one point the spot contract was at its lowest point since early 2016 while spot bean oil was up 20.8%. Kansas City wheat was off 8.0% for 2025, its third straight yearly decline while and Minneapolis wheat was down 3.7% this past season, its fourth straight annual loss.

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