Fundamentally Speaking

U.S. Wheat Sales 73% of Dec WASDE Projection

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

With all the attention on corn and soybean exports, there is less focus on wheat, though this report was the only one that saw 2020/21 overseas sales projections hiked in the December WASDE report.

Based on strong sales of white wheat to a number of Asian customers, the USDA hiked wheat exports by 10 million bushels (mb) to 985 mb.

Is there scope for additional upward revisions in subsequent WASDE reports especially in light of the new more restrictive Russian wheat export polices including export taxes and quotas to conserve wheat stocks for domestic supplies?

This graphic shows U.S. wheat sales and shipments as of the second week in December in million bushels on the left hand axis and as a percent of the USDA's December WASDE projection on the right hand axis with the 1995-2020 average shipped and sold pace percent as of this time of the year also plotted which are respectively 51.6% and 69.6%.

The number in the yellow circle is the change in U.S. wheat exports from the December WASDE to the final figure of each marketing year in million bushels.

This year's amount of wheat sold is 721.9 mb, the third largest export total of the past ten years and accounts for 73.3% of the USDA's 985 million projection.

This year and all other years where the amount sold as a percent of the December WASDE report as of the second week of December is over 73% is highlighted by a darker colored diamond.

Prior to this year there are five of these seasons and due to the strong sales pace about halfway through the marketing year, all of those years saw USDA increase its U.S. wheat export projection from the December WASDE to the final figure of the year by anywhere from 15 mb to 126 mb with the average being a hike of 70 mb.

Hence there is reason to believe that this month's 10 mb upward revision in wheat exports could be seen again in subsequent WASDE reports.


To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .