Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's September supply and demand outlook for Canadian grains includes the most recent production and stocks estimates from Statistics Canada.
As has been discussed in recent weeks, production of all principal field crops is forecast to plunge by 29.4% to 70.384 million metric tons (mmt) after falling just 250,000 metric tons (mt) short of reaching 100 mmt in 2020-21. Statistics Canada shows this the smallest annual production achieved since 2010, while is the largest year-over-year drop seen in Statistics Canada data going back to at least 1981.
When 2020-21 ending stocks are taken into account, supplies are forecast to fall by 29.629 mmt or 25.3% for the 2021-22 crop year to 87.590 mmt for all principal field crops. As seen on the attached chart (brown bars), the largest drops are seen for wheat (excluding durum) of 10.150 mmt and canola of 8,343 mmt. Note that the official estimates for 2020-21 corn and soybean stocks have not been released, but early forecasts point to a year-over-year increase in supplies of corn in Canada, with production forecast to grow from the previous year while imports of corn are forecast to rise by 82% to 3 mmt.
Exports of all principal field crops are forecast to fall by 21.187 mmt or 36.5% to 36.845 mmt. All the major crops shown are forecast to see a year-over-year drop in exports. The largest drops are forecast for wheat (excluding durum) with a 8.134 mmt drop forecast along with a further 2.673 mmt drop in forecast durum exports. Other significant drops include a 2.5 mmt drop in barley, 1.1 mmt for oats, 1.280 mmt for peas and a 4.034 mmt drop in canola exports.
Domestic use of all principal field crops is to drop by 3.350 mmt or a modest 7.2%. As seen with the yellow bars on the attached chart, the largest drop in domestic use is seen with a 3.042 mmt drop in domestic canola disappearance due to a sharply lower revision seen for crush. Of the grains shown on the attached chart, domestic disappearance of corn is forecast to rise year-over-year, with corn replacing barley in many prairie feed rations.
AAFC sees stocks of principal field crops grain falling by 5.093 mmt or 39.4% year-over-year, to 7.845 mmt. The result will be record-low stocks reached for a number of crops that will lead to a test of competitors' supplies, the elasticity of demand for a number of crops as well as the accuracy of all estimates.
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