Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grains and Softs Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Oats: The July 2018 contract closed at $2.46, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend, with initial resistance at $2.54. This price marks the highs for the previous two weeks. Beyond that the target is near $2.60 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.00 1/2 through the low of $2.20 3/4.

Rice: The July 2018 contract closed at $11.445, down 12 cents for the week. July rough rice remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend with last week's low of $11.33 1/2 a test of support at $11.275. This price marks the 50% retracement of the previous uptrend from $9.27 through the high of $13.28. If this support fails to hold, the 61.8% retracement level is down near $10.800.

Cotton: The December 2018 contract closed at 92.36 (cents per pound), up 5.71 cents for the week. The new-crop contract extended its sharp rally last week to a new high of 93.73. However, with weekly stochastics still well above the overbought level of 80% Dec cotton has increased its vulnerability to renewed selling, leaving little support underneath. Initial retracement support is down at 86.03.

Coffee: The July 2018 contract closed at 122.75 (cents per pound), up 2.35 cents for the week. The contract remains in a 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Wave 3 would be projected to move above the Wave 1 high of 125.95 toward at test of initial resistance at 132.94, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from 190.05 through the 115.30 low.

Sugar: The July 2018 contract closed at 12.52 (cents per pound), up 0.06 for the week. The contract posted a new 4-week high of 12.97 last week, extending its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

Cocoa: The July 2018 contract closed at $2,458 (per metric ton), down $98 for the week. The contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the initial signal being a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80% the week of April 2. Next support is at $2,385, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1,826 through the high of $2,943. However, with weekly stochastics still above the oversold level of 20% the contract could test support at the 61.8% retracement level of $2,253.

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