Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.41 3/4, up 20 3/4 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. The ongoing minor (short-term) uptrend looks to be Wave B (second wave) that is testing resistance between $4.42 1/4 and $4.53 1/2.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.888 1/2, up 20 cents for the week. The contract's minor (short-term) uptrend could lead to a test or resistance near $4.95 1/2 this coming week, a price that marks the previous sell-off from $5.31 3/4 through the recent low of $4.59.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.66 1/4, up 40 1/2 cents for the week. Cash HRW remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart, though last week's strong rally could lead to a test of the recent high weekly close of $4.86. Support is at the recent low weekly close of $4.25 3/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.25 1/2, up 39 1/4 cents for the week. While July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, it's minor (short-term) uptrend could lead to a test of resistance at $5.35 1/2. A move through that price could lead to a test of the previous high of $5.65.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.94 3/4, up 32 1/4 cents for the week. Despite last week's strong rally the SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. This could change if the SW.X is able to close above its high previous weekly close of $5.98 3/4.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.23 1/2, up 29 1/2 cents for the week. The contact looks to have established a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend last week as it posted a bullish reversal. Initial resistance is at $6.26 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.89 through last week's low of $5.88 1/4. The 50% retracement level is near $6.38 3/4, with the 61.8% level up at $6.50 1/2.

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