Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.88 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, having held support near $3.81 1/2. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.44 through the high of $5.02 1/4. Initial resistance is at the recent high weekly closes of $3.96 1/2 and $3.97.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.50, up 6 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with last week's rally building on the previous week's spike reversal. Weekly stochastics have also established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, seemingly confirming the move to an uptrend. If so initial resistance is at $4.77 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.09 1/2 through the contract low of $4.37. Beyond that the 33% retracement level is up at $4.94.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.70 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Initial resistance remains at $3.71, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $3.90 3/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.53 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is up near $4.83 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the recent contract low of $4.40 1/4. Beyond that resistance is pegged between $5.00 1/2 and $5.10, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.86 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, holding above support at $5.82 1/2. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the rally from the low weekly close of $5.71 1/4 (week of September 11) through the high weekly close of $6.19 (week of November 6).

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.22, down 4 1/4 cents for the week. A long-range view of new-crop Minneapolis spring wheat shows the contract to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is projected to reach a low near $5.98.

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