Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.97, up 6 1/2 cents for the week. The weekly close-only chart remains one of the most interesting in the commodity sectors studied in this blog. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways between $4.06 1/4 (close the week of September 18) and $3.81 1/4 (close the week of August 21). A downside breakout would imply Wave C (third wave) of a 3-wave downtrend is in place with a target of $3.56 1/4. However, an upside breakout would imply that the previous sell-off from $5.03 through the low weekly close of $3.81 1/4 made up the previous downtrend, suggesting the market is in Wave 3 of the next 5-wave uptrend with a target of $4.31 1/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish following a crossover below the oversold level of 20% the week of September 11.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.73, up 2 cents for the week. July 2018 wheat still looks to be in the early stages of a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Support remains at the recently established contract low of $4.60 3/4 with an initial upside target near $4.95 3/4. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from the contract high of $6.09 1/2. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

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HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.73 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend on its weekly close-only chart, closing above resistance at $3.71. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $3.90 3/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.77 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Initial support is at the contract low of $4.63 1/4, and initial resistance the 4-week high of $4.89 1/2. Beyond that the upside target is $5.01, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the downtrend from the contract high of $6.23. Weekly stochastics remain bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.19, up 25 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Friday's settlement was a new 4-week high, with next resistance pegged at $6.32. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.30 1/4 through the low weekly close of $3.71 1/4.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.46, up 5 cents for the week. New-crop Minneapolis spring wheat is in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after posting a new 4-week high of $6.52 last week.

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Comments

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ROD GREEN
11/15/2017 | 8:57 AM CST
have you got a recent in depth analysis of HRS Minneapolis nearby futures / cash. Please send to greenrm@telus.net. Thanks