Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.63 higher at $62.07. Despite weekly stochastics above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation, the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Next major (long-term) resistance is at $65.80, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $128.40 through the low of $27.10.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.74 higher at $55.64. Despite weekly stochastics above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation, the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The spot-month contract is testing major (long-term) resistance between $55.61 and $59.95, price that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous major downtrend from $114.83 through the low of $26.05.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 1.97cts higher at $1.8866. The market continues to show secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) uptrends on its weekly and monthly charts. Next major resistance is at $2.1094, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016). However, weekly stochastics are above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 2.48cts higher at $1.7934. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with last week's high of $1.7998 a new 4-week high. Channel resistance is calculated this week at $1.8392.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 2.5cts higher at $1.420. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, though weekly stochastics indicate a possible upturn in the near future. This study missed the establishment of a bullish crossover by only hundredths of a percentage point, hinting a change in momentum. If the secondary trend does turn up initial resistance is pegged at $1.473, then $1.528. These prices mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $1.76 through the low of $1.384.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 23.2cts higher at $2.984. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways between resistance at $3.084 and support at $2.803.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.00ct lower at $0.9200. It's possible the secondary (intermediate-term) trend in cash propane is set to turn down again. Last week saw a new high of $0.9375 posted before the market closed lower for the week. Meanwhile, weekly stochastics remain above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation and in position for a bearish crossover.

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