Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.68 higher at $57.54. The market extended its recent rally with the spot-month contract posting a high of $59.49. This is a test of secondary (intermediate-term) resistance is at $59.59, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $69.63 through the low of $27.10. The pullback at the end of the week established a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above 90%, indicating the secondary trend is set to turn down.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.01 higher at $51.67. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding above resistance at $50.42. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $26.05. Major (long-term) resistance is at $52.13. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, but above the overbought level of 80%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.46cts lower at $1.8117. After posting a new 4-week high of $1.8646 last week, the spot-month contract closed lower. The market established a minor (short-term) trend Tuesday, September 29, leading to a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above 90% at the end of the week. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has also turned down.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 6.19cts lower at $1.6065. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways on the market's weekly close-only chart. Resistance is at $1.7349 (close the week of April 10) with support at $1.4341 (close the week of June 19).

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.8ct lower at $1.506. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the double-bottom low near $1.43. Resistance is at $1.632. Weekly stochastics are neutral.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 4.8cts higher at $3.007. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways as the spot-month contract holds below resistance at $3.084. Initial support is at the recent low of $2.753.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.88cts lower at $0.8500. Cash propane looks to have established a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend last week. The lower close following a new high of $0.9262 looks to be a spike reversal. Weekly stochastics posted a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is pegged at $0.8275, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.5288 through last week's high. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $0.7704.

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