Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.23 higher at $48.77. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend is on hold while the minor (short-term) trend has turned up. Next minor resistance is at $49.51 then $50.73, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous minor downtrend from $54.67 through the low of $44.35. Weekly stochastics have turned bullish above the oversold level of 20%, indicating the market has more room to the downside before a change in secondary trend is seen.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.03 higher at $46.04. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend is on hold while the minor (short-term) trend has turned up. Next minor resistance is at $47.02 then $48.20, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous minor downtrend from $52.00 through the low of $42.05. Weekly stochastics have turned bullish above the oversold level of 20%, indicating the market has more room to the downside before a change in secondary trend is seen.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 11.14cts higher at $1.4831. Similar to the oil markets, the secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend in distillates has paused for a minor (short-term) uptrend. Next minor resistance is at $1.4905 and $1.5277, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous minor downtrend from $1.6269 through the low of $1.3540. With daily stochastics nearing the overbought 80% level, this range should hold the remainder of the uptrend.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 7.96cts higher at $1.5137. While the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, its minor (short-term) trend is up. The next upside target is $1.5353 then $1.5682, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous minor downtrend from $1.6750 through the low of $1.3955.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.8cts higher at $1.509. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the double-bottom low near $1.43. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. The market's minor (short-term) trend looks to have turned up late last week.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 10.6cts higher at $3.035. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Support is still at $2.521 while weekly stochastics are bearish. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $2.855. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $3.255.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.75cts higher at $0.5550. Cash propane's looks to be in position to rejoin its previous secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Last week's low of $0.5300 creates a potential double-bottom with the previous low of $0.5275 from the week of March 27. Both are a test of major (long-term) support at $0.5281.

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