Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.63 lower at $49.10. Despite last week's late rally the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The spot-month contract bounced off its test of support at $46.42, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $58.37. With weekly stochastics still bearish the market should retest this support, if not extend its secondary trend to the 50% retracement level of $42.73.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.11 lower at $46.22. Despite last week's late rally the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The spot-month contract bounced off its test of support at $44.09, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $55.24. With weekly stochastics still bearish the market should retest this support, if not extend its secondary trend to the 50% retracement level of $40.65.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.74cts lower at $1.4366. Despite last week's late rally the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. The spot-month contract was able to close back above support at $1.4148, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647. With weekly stochastics still bearish the market should extend its secondary trend to the 50% retracement level of $1.3067.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 4.34cts lower at $1.5046. Gasoline continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its weekly bar chart. Secondary resistance remains at $1.7587 with support at $1.4373. However, the contract posted a new 4-week low of $1.4500 last week and weekly stochastics remain bearish meaning the spot-month contract could fall to next support at $1.3342.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 5.7cts lower at $1.501. The nearby futures contract posted a new 4-week low of $1.449 before rallying. This combined with bearish weekly stochastics would suggest the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down with support between $1.425 and $1.401.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 1.0ct lower at $3.266. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the spot-month contract continues to consolidate between support at the 4-week low of $3.022 and resistance the 4-week high of $3.347. The weekly chart indicates the market is still in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, with the recent consolidation phase still part of a Wave B (second wave) top. Next resistance is up at $3.432.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.45cts higher at $0.5963. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is at $0.6537, a price that marks thee 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $0.9100 through the low of $0.5275. Support is at the 4-week low of $0.5500.

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