Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.41 higher at $55.24. While the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, its minor (short-term) trend is up with next resistance at $56.33. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the minor downtrend, secondary sell-off, from $58.37 through the low of $49.71. Weekly stochastics are neutral near 40%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.64 higher at $52.24. Similar to Brent, WTI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) while showing a minor (short-term) uptrend. Next minor resistance is at $52.52, the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend, secondary sell-off, from $55.24 through the low of $47.01. Weekly stochastics are neutral near 45%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.48cts higher at $1.6284. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the market has posted a solid minor (short-term) uptrend. The spot-month contract is approaching next minor resistance at $1.6685, the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.7647 through the low of $1.4758. Daily stochastics are showing a sharply overbought short-term situation above 90%.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 4.61cts higher at $1.7462. While gasoline is showing a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its standard weekly bar chart, the weekly close only shows a seasonal uptrend in place. The spot-month contract continues to test secondary resistance at $1.7587.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.5cts higher at $1.629. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as it posted a new 4-week high of $1.653. However, it was unable to close above resistance at $1.632, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.76 through the low of $1.425, possibly sparking renewed selling interest this week.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 7.1cts higher at $3.261. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the continued rally by the spot-month contract is a solid Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave downtrend. Resistance is between $3.258 and $3.432, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of Wave A from $3.994 through $2.522.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 5.00cts higher at $0.6025. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is now up. After posting a bullish reversal the previous week, cash propane rallied enough last week to establish a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Its initial upside target is now $0.6537, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $0.9100 through the recent low of $0.5275.

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