Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.92, up 10 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with a target of $4.04 3/4. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.01 1/4 through the low of $3.44 (weekly close only). However, weekly stochastics are already above the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.56 1/4, up 7 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with resistance pegged between $4.59 1/4 and $4.75 1/2. These prices mark thee 23.6% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $5.86 1/2 through the low of $4.20. Weekly stochastics are bullish and the contract posted a bullish outside range last week, both indicating the uptrend could gain momentum.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.48, up 7 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be down. The HW.X could retest its recent high weekly close of $3.54 1/4 without changing the downside target at the old resistance mark of $3.27 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.65 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the contract's minor (short-term) daily chart shows Wave C (third wave) of a three-wave downtrend looks to be beginning. If so the contract could fall back to support at $4.42 3/4. Still, July Kansas City posted a bullish outside week last week meaning it should eventually find increased buying interest.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.18 1/4, up 1/2 cent for the week. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is pegged at $5.12 3/4, then between $5.03 and $4.98. These prices mark the 23.6%, 33%, and 38.2% retracement levels respectively of the previous uptrend from $4.35 through the high of $5.36 3/4. Weekly stochastics bearish above the overbought level of 80%.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.62 1/4 up 6 cents for the week. The contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, with initial resistance near $5.65. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.09 3/4 through the low of $5.20. The 61.8% retracement level is up at $5.75 1/2. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.

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