Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.98 higher at $56.14. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains up, influenced by the market's major (long-term) trend. The spot-month contract closed above resistance at $55.47 with the next secondary target up at $59.59. However, weekly stochastics have climbed back above the overbought level of 80%, possibly limiting an extension of the uptrend.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.70 higher at $53.72. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract testing resistance at $53.96. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $63.58 through the low of $26.05. However, weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%. Next major (long-term) resistance on the market's monthly chart is at $59.96.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.15cts higher at $1.7043. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the market could soon roll over into a downtrend. Weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80% and poised for a bearish crossover. A similar situation is seen with the major (long-term) uptrend on the monthly chart.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.89cts higher at $1.6651. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up as the spot-month contract moved above resistance at $1.6482. With weekly stochastics near the overbought level of 80% the market could extend its uptrend to test next resistance at $1.7587.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.3cts higher at $1.606. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be down, the spot-month contract posted a solid rally off its new 4-week low of $1.520. The minor (short-term) trend looks to have turned up, though the spot-month contract is already testing resistance at the 50% retracement level of $1.639. The 61.8% retracement level is up at $1.668.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 6.2cts higher at $3.724. Last week saw the spot-month contract test secondary (intermediate-term) resistance at $4.052 with its new 4-week high of $3.994 before falling back. The weekly chart remains a series of contradicting signals highlighted by a bearish crossover by stochastics above the overbought level of 80% (week of July 11) and a bullish outside range (week of December 19).

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 6.38cts higher at $0.7038. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, closing higher seven weeks in a row. However, with the market testing major (long-term) resistance near $0.7200 and both weekly and monthly stochastics indicating an overbought situation the market could soon roll over into a downtrend.

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