Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.01 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents for the month. Though monthly stochastics remain bullish, the market's major (long-term) trend still looks to be sideways. Support is at the 4-month low of $2.73 (August 2016) and resistance thee 4-month high of $3.14 3/4 (October 2016). A breakout will be signaled when the NCI.X moves outside of that range.

Corn (Futures): The March contract closed at $3.48 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents on the monthly chart. While monthly stochastics remain bullish below the oversold level of 20%, the market remain in a major (long-term) sideways trend. A move to a new 4-month high beyond $3.59 1/4 (October 2016) would confirm the establishment of a major uptrend. Support remains at the long-term low of $3.14 3/4 (August 2016).

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.60, up 32 1/4 cents for the month. The NSI.X still looks to be in a 5-wave uptrend with the October low of $8.77 3/4 the bottom of Wave 2. In a normal uptrend Wave 3 will surpass the peak of Wave 1, which in this case is the high of $11.12 from June 2016. Retracement resistance is between $11.18 3/4 and $11.65, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% levels of the previous downtrend from $14.47 3/4 (August 2012) through the low of $8.05 (March 2016).

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $10.32 1/4, up 20 1/2 cents on the monthly chart. The market remains in a major (long-term) 5-Wave uptrend. Monthly stochastics remain bullish meaning the market should extend its uptrend beyond the Wave 1 peak of $12.08 1/2 (June 2016).

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.46, down 24 1/4 cents for the month. The SR.X closed at its monthly low at the end of November, keeping its major (long-term) trend sideways for now. Resistance is at the 4-month high of $3.76 1/2 (October 2016) with support the 4-month low of $3.31 3/4 (August 2016). The next major low is $3.12 1/4 from October 2009.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The March Chicago contract closed at $4.02 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents for the month. Until the market establishes a new 4-month high or low, its major (long-term) trend should be considered sideways. The previous 4-month high is $4.49 1/4 (August 2016) while the previous 4-month low is $3.86 3/4 (also August 2016).

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