Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $2.99 1/4, down 7 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up the minor (short-term) trend is down. The NCI.X is testing minor support at $2.98 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.73 through the high of $3.14 3/4. Given continued bearish daily stochastics, the NCI.X could test the 50% retracement level of $2.93 3/4.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 8.50cts lower at $3.40 1/4. While the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, its minor (short-term) trend is down. Dec corn is moving toward a test of next minor support at $3.37, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $3.14 3/4 through the high of $3.59 1/4. Daily stochastics remain bearish but are now below the oversold level of 20%, setting the stage for a potential bullish crossover.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.11, down 1 cent for the week. While technical indicators continue to show the NSI.X in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, the eyeball test shows cash soybeans to be trending sideways between resistance near $9.42 3/4 and support near $8.79 3/4 on the market's weekly close chart. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, holding just above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $9.86, down 4 3/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend is down. Minor support is between $9.85 3/4 and $9.70 1/2, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $9.40 1/4 through the high $10.30. Daily stochastics remain bearish and above the oversold level of 20%, meaning Jan beans could continue to come under pressure.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.61 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend is down with next support at $3.58 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $3.44 through the high of $3.73 1/4.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.05, down 1 cent for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend is down. Next minor support is at $3.03 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.86 through the high of $3.14. Daily stochastics remain bearish but working toward the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.73 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, with resistance still pegged at $4.79. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.01 through the low of $4.35. With weekly stochastics are near the overbought level of 80%, indicating the SW.X may have limited time to move higher.

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