Technically Speaking
Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets
Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $48.36, down $0.76 on the monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend. The spot-month contract posted a new high of $53.73 before closing back below resistance at $51.01. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 through the low of $27.10. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $65.80.
Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $46.79 down $1.45 on the monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the market remains in an uptrend. Resistance remains up at $59.96, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 through the low of $26.05. Monthly stochastics remain bullish below the overbought level of 80%.
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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5385, up 1.44cts on the monthly chart. The market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend with next resistance at $1.6883. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics remain bullish below the overbought level of 80%.
Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5080, up 2.12cts on the monthly chart. The major trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%, while the spot-month contract continues to trade below resistance at its recent high of $1.6664 (May 2016). Support is at $1.4104, then $1.2820.
Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.635, up 8.8cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged at $1.712, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 (July 2011) through the double-bottom low of $1.292 (January 2015 and January 2016). The June 2016 high was $1.739.
Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $3.026, up 12.0cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end with the spot-month contract near resistance at $2.979. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.352 (December 2013) through the low of $1.611 (March 2016). Monthly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80% and nearing a bearish crossover.
Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.5225, up 2.25cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is up with resistance at $0.5428. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2013) through the low of $0.2525 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.
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