Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Site: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $49.69, up $1.56 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract testing initial resistance at $51.01. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 (March 2012) through the low of $27.10 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics continue to grow more bullish indicating the market could extend this rally to the 33% retracement level of $60.83.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $49.10, up $3.18 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up as the spot-month contract closed above initial resistance at $47.08. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 (May 2011) through the low of $26.05 posted in February 2016. With monthly stochastics growing more bullish, noncommercial buying could continue to push the market to the 38.2% retracement level of $59.96.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.4975, up 11.96cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract closing above initial resistance at $1.4437. This price marks the 23.6% resistance level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could extend this move to the 33% retracement level of $1.6883.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.6149, up 3.01cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract holding above initial resistance at $1.5067. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $3.4789 (April 2011) through the low of $0.8975 (February 2016). With monthly stochastics growing more bullish the market could look at testing the 33$ retracement level of $1.7571.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.648, up 10.3cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with an initial upside target of $1.712. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 through the low of $1.292. Monthly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could extend its rally to the 33% retracement level of $1.884.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.288, up 11.0cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is up. Initial resistance is pegged at $2.581, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.72 (January 2014) through the low of $1.611 (March 2016).

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.4863, up 2.13cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up. However, cash propane tested initial resistance at $0.5428, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2015) through the low of $0.2525 (January 2016), during May and could not break through.

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