Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.77 1/4, up 17 3/4 for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%. Initial major (long-term) resistance is pegged at $4.10.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed 18.25cts higher at $4.12 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend continues to strengthen as July corn posted a new 4-week high of $4.13 1/2 and closed above resistance at $4.11 1/4. The latter price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.71 1/4 through the low of $3.51 1/4. The 67% retracement level is up at $4.31 1/4. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report* showed noncommercial traders holding a net-long futures position of 183,168 contracts, the largest since the week of August 10, 2015.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed 13 3/4 cents higher at $4.13 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with the contract closing above initial resistance at $4.13. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend through the contract low of $3.64. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but are nearing the oversold level of 80%. Support continues to come from both noncommercial and commercial buying, the latter indicated by the uptrend (weakening carry) of the December-to-March futures spread.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $10.18 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents for the week. Despite weekly stochastics that show the NSI.X to be sharply overbought, the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen. Last week saw the NSI.X post a bullish outside week before closing at its weekly high. The market's major (long-term) uptrend continues to strengthen as well with initial resistance pegged at $10.27 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $14.47 3/4 through the low of $8.05.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed at $10.86 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. July soybeans posted a bullish outside week after rallying off initial support near $10.41 3/4. Last week's low was $10.43 1/2. The market continues to be driven by its major (long-term) uptrend that shows next resistance at $11.58 3/4.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed at $10.56 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents for the week. While technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down, November soybeans were able to rally off last week's low of $10.18 3/4, a test of support between $10.25 1/2 and $10.03 1/4. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the overbought level of 80% while Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report* showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures positon in soybeans by 1,425 contracts.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.38 1/2, up 17 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, though the SR.X is challenging previous high weekly closes of $4.38 and $4.39 1/4. A move through these highs would set the stage for a test of next resistance near $4.50 1/2. Weekly stochastics (momentum indicator) have turned bullish above the oversold level of 20% and still well below the overbought mark of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed at $4.81 1/2, up 13 3/4 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat posted a bullish outside range last week indicating a move back to its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance remains at $5.16 1/4, well above Friday's high. Recently (week of April 18) the contract peaked at $5.18 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.90 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents for the week. The HW.X looks to be in the process of establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after posting a bullish range last week. Support remains at the major (long-term) low of $3.72 and initial resistance the 4-week high of $4.06 1/2.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed at $4.49, down 7 cents for the week. July Kansas City looks to be in the process of establishing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after posting a bullish range last week. Support remains at the contract low of $4.41 1/4 and initial resistance the 4-week high of $4.79 1/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.72 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at last week's low of $4.66 and resistance the 4-week high of $4.98 3/4.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed at $5.35 1/2, up 1/4 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up as the minor (short-term) downtrend comes to an end. September Minneapolis wheat is testing support between $5.35 and $5.24 1/4, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous rally from $5.02 3/4 through the high of $5.67.

*The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, March 24.

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