Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.55 3/4, up 17 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. For now resistance remains near $3.59 1/2 while support is near $3.23.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed 13.25cts higher at $3.90 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways with a range of $3.51 1/4 (contract low) to $4.07 1/4 (high the week of April 18). The latter was also a test of resistance at $4.11 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.71 1/4 through contract low.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed 13 1/2 cents higher at $3.98 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with a range of $3.64 (contract low) to $4.09 (high the week of April 18). However, the contract posted a bullish close last week indicating it may be set to extend its rally to a test of initial resistance near $4.13. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend through the contract low.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.92 1/2, up 52 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, in line with the market's major (long-term) trend. Next major resistance is pegged near $10.27 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend. However, weekly stochastics remain well above the overbought level of 80% indicating new intermediate-term buying interest could be limited.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed at $10.65, up 30 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, in line with the market's major (long-term) trend. Initial major resistance is pegged near $10.67 1/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend. However, weekly stochastics remain well above the overbought level of 80% indicating new intermediate-term buying interest could be limited.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed at $10.54 1/2, up 32 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, weekly stochastics are well above the overbought level of 80% as the contract tests resistance near $10.90 3/4. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend. Support continues to come not only from increased noncommercial buying but commercial interest as well, as indicated by the strengthening inverse in the November-to-January futures spread.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.28 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways in a wide range between its major low of $4.02 1/4 and the recent high of $4.63. The latter was a test of resistance between $4.54 1/2 and $4.75 3/4, prices that mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the major low.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed at $4.74 3/4, up 11 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. However, the minor (short-term) trend has turned up and could support the secondary trend.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.85 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down after cash HRW posted a new major low of $3.72 last week before rallying, possibly establishing a spike reversal.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed at $4.56, up 2 1/2 cents for the week. After posting a new contract low of $4.41 1/4 July KC wheat posted a strong rally. The close near the weekly high of $4.58 may have established a spike reversal indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend could soon turn up.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.79 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways between resistance at $4.97 and support at the now 4-week low of $4.71 1/4.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed at $5.42 1/4, down 1/2 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up though the futures contract continues in a consolidation phase. Resistance remains at $5.53 1/2, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.55 through the contract low of $5.02 3/4. Weekly stochastics are below the overbought level of 80%.

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