Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $48.13, up $8.53 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract finishing April near its monthly high of $48.50. Initial resistance is pegged at $51.01, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 (March 2012) through the low of $27.10 (January 2016). However, monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could extend this rally to the 33% retracement level of $60.83.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $45.92, up $7.58 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up as the spot-month contract moves toward initial resistance at $47.00. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 (May 2011) through the low of $26.05 posted in February 2016. With monthly stochastics growing more bullish, noncommercial buying could continue to push the market to the 38.2% retracement level of $59.96.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.3779, up 19.31cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract posting a bullish outside range in April. Initial resistance is pegged at $1.4437, a price that marks the 23.6% resistance level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could extend this move to the 33% retracement level of $1.6883.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.584 up 15.83cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the spot-month contract closing above initial resistance at $1.5067. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $3.4789 (April 2011) through the low of $0.8975 (February 2016). With monthly stochastics growing more bullish the market could look at testing the 33$ retracement level of $1.7571.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.545, up 10.9cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with initial an upside target of $1.712. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 through the low of $1.292. Monthly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could extend its rally to the 33% retracement level of $1.884.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.178, up 21.9cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is up. Initial resistance is pegged at $2.581, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.72 (January 2014) through the low of $1.611 (March 2016). April saw the market build on the bullish crossover by monthly stochastics established at the end of March.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.4650, up 7.00cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains with an initial target of $0.5428. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2015) through the low of $0.2525 (January 2016).

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