Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $49.56, up $1.19 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways as the spot-month contract continues to consolidate within August's range from $54.32 to $42.23. Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% but still not indicating a move toward establishing a bullish crossover.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $46.59, up $1.50 on the monthly chart. October saw the spot-month contract post a bullish outside month, trading outside the September trading range before closing higher. While this looks to be a possible move to a major (long-term) uptrend the pattern was not confirmed by a bullish crossover in monthly stochastics. If no confirmation is seen in November, the major trend would still be considered sideways.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5167, up 0.41ct on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways as the spot-month contract continues to consolidate within August's trading range from 1.6865 to $1.3745. Monthly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.3716, down 1.78cts on the monthly chart. The market continues to indicate it is in Wave 2 of a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, holding above its previous low of $1.2265 (January 2015). The last signal in monthly stochastics was a bullish crossover at the end of February 2015.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.602 up 6.7cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with the most recent signal by monthly stochastics a bullish crossover at the end of April 2015. Resistance is pegged at $1.712, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.070 (July 2011) through the low of $1.292 (January 2015). This resistance held the previous rally, posting a high of $1.709 in May 2015.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.321, down 20.3cts on the monthly chart. The market looks to have established a spike rally in October with the spot-month contract posting a strong rally off its new multi-year low of $1.948. The late month rally established a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. If the trend has turned up, initial resistance is pegged at $2.838. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major (long-term) downtrend from the January 2014 high of $5.72.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.4188, down 1.12cts on its monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the major (long-term) trend remains up with a target of $0.5542. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2013) through the low of $0.2675 (June 2015).

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