Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.47 lower at $48.13. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-up with the most recent technical signals bullish. Still, the spot-month contract continues to consolidate between resistance at the recent high of $54.32 and recent low of $42.23 creating a range of $12.09.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.16 lower at $45.54. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up though the spot-month contract has been in a minor (short-term) bullish pennant consolidation pattern. Given the range of the initial flagpole of $6.43 ($42.90 to the high of $49.33) a breakout above trendline resistance this week at $43.97 would project a high for the second-half of the flagpole at $50.40. This would also be a test of retracement resistance at $50.16, the 50% level of the downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $37.75.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.26cts lower at $1.5199. The spot-month contract followed up the previous week's bullish outside range with a bearish outside range last week. Given these two patterns offset, the previous signal was a bullish reversal the week of August 24 indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend had turned up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish indicating the market should see a bullish breakout in the coming weeks.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 5.45cts lower at $1.3414. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways as the spot-month contract continues to hold above major (long-term) support at $1.2265. Weekly stochastics remain well below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could see a bullish turn in the coming week.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.0cts higher at $1.575. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with an initial target of $1.664. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.265 through the low of $1.292. Weekly stochastics remain bullish.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 11.3cts lower at $2.451. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract moving to a new low of $2.403. Weekly stochastics are bearish and moving toward the oversold level of 20%. Next major (long-term) support may be at the June 2012 low of $2.168.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.25cts lower at $0.4350. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks set to roll over from an uptrend to a possible downtrend. Weekly stochastics are nearing a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $0.4025.

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