Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.53, up 13 cents for the month. The NCI.X remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend pattern, holding support between $3.44 and $3.23 during September. These prices mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the rally from $2.81 (October 2014) through $4.06 (July 2015). Monthly stochastics remain bullish.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed at $3.87 3/4, up 12.5 cents on the monthly chart. Technical indicators continue to show the major (long-term) trend is up. However Dec corn was unable to move above the August high of $4.02 in September, indicating a consolidation phase. Initial resistance remains pegged at $4.43 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.49 (August 2012) through the low of $3.18 1/4 (October 2014). Monthly stochastics are still bullish.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.38, down $0.35 for the month. Technical patterns indicate the major (long-term) trend is down after the NSI.X posted a new low of $8.09 in September. This is its lowest level since $8.08 back in March 2009. Given that the NSI.X was able to rally at the end of the month, and that monthly stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20%, cash soybeans could look to consolidate over the coming months as the NSI.X moves toward establishing an uptrend.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed at $8.92, up 4.50 cents on the monthly chart. The market looks to have established a spike reversal in September, rallying off its new low of $8.53 1/4 to close higher. Monthly stochastics also established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. However, this is the fourth such crossover below 20% since November 2014 and the market has yet to see increased bullish momentum.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.53, up 28 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways after the SR.X posted a new low of $4.11 during September before rallying to its higher close. Monthly stochastics are neutral, below the oversold level of 20%.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The December Chicago contract closed at $5.12 3/4, up 27.75 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways with support at the May 2015 low of $4.60 3/4. Monthly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish, moving back above the oversold level of 20%. This would indicate the market could see increased bullish momentum over the coming months.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .