Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Cash propane remains in a solid secondary uptrend. (Source: DTN ProphetX)

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.47 lower at $48.14. While technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the spot-month contract has had difficulty building bullish momentum. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $54.32 with support at the recent low of $42.23.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.42 lower at $44.63. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, with support tied to buying from both commercial and noncommercial traders. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the latter group added 11,088 contracts to their net-long futures position. However, the spot-month contract continues to consolidate below resistance at $46.02, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the recent low of $37.75. The 50% retracement level is up at $50.16.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.60cts lower at $1.5500. While the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend remains in place the minor (short-term) trend has turned sideways. This has the spot-month contract consolidating below its recent high of $1.6865 and testing minor support at $1.5305. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the initial rally from $1.3745 through the $1.6865 high. The 67% retracement level is down at $1.4784.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 4.83cts lower at $1.3699. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with major (long-term) support at the low of $1.2265. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate the market is oversold, a factor that continues to draw some noncommercial buying interest. Last Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed this group adding 1,925 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 3.50cts higher at $1.4890. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthened last week, putting the spot-month contract in position to challenge the 4-week high of $1.5100. Weekly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating buying interest is slowly building. The market's forward curve remains inverted indicate commercial support.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 3.8cts higher at $2.693. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding near support at $2.704. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $2.443 through the high of $3.105. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.24cts higher at $0.4300. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with cash propane posting a new 4-week high of $0.4325. Weekly stochastics are bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, September 8.

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