Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Crude oil posted a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart. (Source: DTN ProphetX)

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.59 higher at $50.05. The spot-month contract posted a bullish key reversal on the weekly chart, in conjunction with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics. This combination indicates the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up, a move that could lead to the market reestablishing its major (long-term) uptrend.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.77 higher at $45.22. The spot-month contract posted a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart last week, in conjunction with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. This combination indicates the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 11.40cts higher at $1.6754. Similar to what was seen in the crude oil markets the spot-month contract posted a bullish key reversal on the weekly chart indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Also, weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The market is in position to establish a new 4-week high, above $1.6051, confirming this past week's patterns.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 2.31cts lower at $1.5218. Despite the lower weekly close the spot-month contract was able to post a solid rally off last week's low of $1.3500 to close back above support at $1.4529. This price marks the 76% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.2264 through the high of $2.1858. This keeps the idea that the recent secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend was only Wave 2 of a major (long-term) uptrend cycle. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% indicating a change in trend is possible.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.40ct lower at $1.4430. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-down trend with weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $1.5100, then $1.5200. The spot-month contract continues to hold near support at $1.4309, the 67% retracement level of the uptrend from $1.2920 through the high of $1.7090.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 3.9cts higher at $2.715. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding near support at $2.704. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $2.443 through the high of $3.105. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.25cts higher at $0.3600. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with cash propane posting a new 4-week high of $0.3625. Weekly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could continue to move higher with next resistance is at the June high of $0.4025.

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