Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Live Cattle: The October contract closed $3.00 lower at $143.85. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with support at the previous low of $143.30. With weekly stochastics still bearish above the oversold level of 20% the contract could extend the secondary trend to a test of major (long-term) support between $141.95 and $137.50. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $80.225 through the high of $172.75. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position to 14,058 contracts.

Feeder Cattle: The October contract closed $7.95 lower at $199.475 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with support at the previous low of $195.00. Weekly stochastics have moved below the oversold level of 20%, meaning a bullish crossover could occur in the coming weeks. However, the major (long-term) trend remains down, and monthly stochastics bearish, with support pegged near $192.35. The previous major low is $193.00 from February 2015.

Lean hogs: The October contract closed $2.525 lower at $62.825 last week. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Consolidating activity over the last six weeks looks to be a short-term sideways trend with resistance at the recent high of $67.70 and support at the contract low of $59.45.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.41, up 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the NCI.X continuing to hold above major (long-term) support at $3.31. The minor (short-term) daily chart continues to show the NCI.X is in Wave 2 of a 5-wave uptrend, with initial support between $3.41 and $3.39. These prices mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the Wave 1 rally from $3.32 through the high of $3.47. Support at the 61.8% retracement level is down at $3.38.

Soybean meal: The more active December contract closed $0.40 higher at $314.60. Despite Friday's lower close the minor (short-term) downtrend on the daily chart looks to have come to an end. This could lead to the contract rejoining its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after testing support the last two weeks at $309.90, th3 67% retracement level of the previous rally from $286.00 through the high of $357.70. Support continues to come from commercial buying interest, as indicated by the uptrend (strengthening inverse in the December to January futures spread.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, August 18.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .