Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.19 higher at $65.56. After testing support at $61.49, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $45.19 through the high of $69.63, the spot-month contract was able to rally to a higher weekly close. However, indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, with a possible test of resistance near $69.22 setting up a potential double-top.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.58 higher at $60.30. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding below resistance at $65.41. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $112.24 through the low of $42.03. Support is at the new 4-week low, last week's low of $56.51. Stochastics are holding above the overbought level of 80%.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.28cts higher at $1.9553. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up, though the spot-month contract continues to hold below initial resistance at $1.9841. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $1.5890. Next resistance is at the 33% retracement level of $2.1465. Weekly stochastics remain neutral.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.19cts higher at $2.0858. The spot-month contract posted a bullish outside week last week, establishing a new high for this uptrend of $2.0969. Though the next target is $2.1892, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.1520 through the low of $1.2265, weekly stochastics are above 90% indicating a sharply overbought situation. Buying interest continues to come from commercial traders, as indicated by the strengthening backwardation in the market's forward curve. However noncommercial traders continue to sell, with Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group reducing their net-long futures position by 5,271 contracts.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.20cts lower at $1.5330. The spot-month contract followed through on the previous week's bearish reversal, falling to a test of support at $1.5005 last week. This price marks the 50% retracement level of previous uptrend from $1.2920 through the recent high of $1.7090. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating a possible test of the 67% retracement level near $1.43.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 24.5cts lower at $2.642. While indications are the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the spot-month contract has quickly fallen back below support at $2.704. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $2.443 through the recent high of $3.105. Next support is at the $2.443 low. Weekly stochastics are bullish indicating the market should find renewed buying interest.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.50ct lower at $0.3800. Cash propane moved to a new low of $0.3175 last week before rallying. Weekly stochastics are showing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating a possible move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, May 26.

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