Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.57, down 8 cents for the week. The trend of the market remains sideways to down, with the last secondary (intermediate-term) signal by weekly stochastics a bearish crossover above the oversold level of 80% level the week of December 29, 2014. Support remains at $3.47, the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary uptrend from $2.81 through the December 2014 high of $3.80.

Corn (Old-crop): The May contract closed 9.50cts lower at $3.77 last week. The market looks to have reestablished its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with support near $3.68. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous secondary uptrend from $3.39 1/4 through the high of $4.25 1/4. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20%, needing an additional sell-off in the futures market to set up a possible bullish crossover.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 8.00cts lower at $4.02 1/2 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down with next support near $3.91 1/2. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.08, down 34 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways though the NSI.X finished the week on its previous low. A move to a new low would pull weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%, setting up the possibility of another bullish crossover.

Soybeans (old-crop): The May contract closed 34.50cts lower at $9.51 1/2 last week. May soybeans quickly erased the previous bullish outside week with last week's sell-off. While stochastics continue to show a sideways trend the contract could look at testing its low of $9.28 3/4 before momentum starts to turn bullish again.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 31.75cts lower at $9.42 1/2 last week. November soybeans stayed within its previous week's range while stochastics moved closer to an oversold situation. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the contract low of $9.27 1/2.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.01, down 10 cents for the week. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is at $5.11, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the low of $4.55. The 50% retracement level is up at $5.39.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The May Chicago contract closed 9.75cts lower at $5.26 1/2 last week. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Initial resistance is near $5.44 1/4, a price that marks the 335 retracement level of the sell-off from $6.76 3/4 through the low of $4.78 1/4. The 50% retracement level is up at $5.77 1/2.

HRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Kansas City contract closed 23.50cts lower at $5.62 1/2 last week. July Kansas City wheat posted a bearish outside week, usually an indication that a trend has turned down. However, given the market's penchant for giving false signals the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is still considered to be up. Initial resistance is at the recent high of $5.93, with a longer-term target near $6.21 3/4.

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