Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.55, down 10 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up, while the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. Support remains at $3.31, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from $2.81 (October 2014 low) to $3.80 (December 2014 high). The long-term price target remains $4.90, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $8.26

(August 2012) to $2.81 (October 2014). The April 2014 high was $4.86.

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Corn (Futures): The May contract closed at $3.76 1/4, down 17 cents on the monthly chart. While the major (long-term) trend remains up, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. A move back to support near $3.56, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from $3.18 1/4 (October 2014 low) to $4.17 (December 2014 high) could turn stochastics neutral in April. However, the long-term price target remains $5.21, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement of the previous major downtrend from $8.49 (August 2012 high) to the October 2014 low.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.29, down 55 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways, with initial support at the October 2014 low of $8.50. Resistance is at the November high of $10.08. The NSI.X continues to hold near the 50% level (midpoint) of this sideways range at $9.29. Monthly stochastics remain neutral below the oversold level of 20% indicating the next breakout could be toward the upside.

Soybeans (Futures): The May contract closed at $9.73 1/4, down 58 1/2 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) remains up, based on the key bullish reversal at the end of October 2014 coinciding with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. However, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down with support pegged near $9.65 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the initial rally from $9.04 (October 2014 low) to $10.86 1/4 (November 2014 high). If this support fails to hold, soybean futures could fall back to test the previous low of $9.04.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.85, down 3 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways with support at $4.25 (low from September 2014) and resistance at $6.23 (high from December 2014).

SRW Wheat (Futures): The May Chicago contract closed at $5.11 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways as the more active futures contract continues to hold above its previous low of $4.66 1/4. Resistance is near $6.26 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.47 1/4 (high from July 2012) through $4.66 1/4 low (September 2014).

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Comments

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DARIN NEWSOM
4/1/2015 | 12:45 PM CDT
Thank you for your comments. You and I agree, for the most part, on the corn ending stocks situation. As I discussed in the report review "A Cliffhanger of Sorts", Q2 stocks of 7.744 bb projects to an ending stocks figure of 1.82 bb based on average 2nd-half demand back through the 2006-2007 marketing year. This blog, though, has to do strictly with technical signals. And those remain long-term bullish going back to the key bullish reversal and secondary bullish crossover by stochastics in futures. The consolidation seen since December does not change this technical picture. The basic tenet of technical analysis, one that I've mentioned numerous times, is "anything that can possibly affect the market price of a commodity futures contract -- fundamental, political, psychological, or otherwise -- is actually reflected in the price of that commodity. It follows, therefore, that a study of price action is all that is required." Again, thank you for your comments and participation in this blog.
Freeport IL
4/1/2015 | 10:48 AM CDT
It is known you avoid taking USDA's teasers.At the risk of seeming rude, yesterday's stock report seems bearish for old crop corn. This is from historic quarterly and half year use numbers. These numbers point to 2014-15 ending stocks at 1.9 billion bushels plus. One would expect WASDE to start heading back to higher ending stocks in future reports. Bullishness in old crop corn, after yesterday's report, seems to need to come from a weather event for the new crop. Freeport, IL