Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.64, down $0.01 for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the last signal a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics the week of December 29. After falling to a low of $3.44, a test of technical support at $3.47, the NCI.X has moved sideways. The last two weeks has seen a test of resistance between $3.62 and $3.68, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the initial selloff from $3.80 through the $3.44 low. Weekly stochastics remain neutral to bearish.

Corn (Old-crop): The May contract closed 2.25cts lower at $3.93 last week. Weekly stochastics are bearish, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Support is between $3.82 1/4 and $3.72, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.39 1/4 through the high of $4.25 1/4. If the contract is able to post a commercial-led rally against its prevailing trend, resistance is pegged between $4.01 3/4 and $4.11.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 1.25cts lower at $4.16 1/4 last week. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Given the continued neutral view of new-crop supply and demand indicated by the carry in the December 2015 to March 2016 futures spread, Dec corn could fall back to a test of support at $4.03 1/2. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.55, up 9 cents for the week. Technical indicators show the NSI.X has rejoined its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The NSI.X posted a new 4-week high of $9.63, with the higher weekly close leading to a bullish crossover by stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. The last major signal in stochastics remains the bullish crossover below 20% the week of October 13, 2014. The bearish crossover seen the January 12 occurred below the overbought level of 80%, signaling the move to the sideways trend between $10.02 and $9.12 the NSI.X has been in since. The longer-term target remains $10.66, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50.

Soybeans (old-crop): The May contract closed 7.50cts higher at $10.02 1/4 last week. May soybeans posted a new 4-week high $10.20 3/4 indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up again. The higher weekly close, though well off its high, led to a bullish crossover by stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is between $10.48 and $10.65 3/4, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.87 1/4 through the low of $9.28 3/4. The May to July futures spread looks to be establishing an uptrend (weakening carry) reflecting an increasingly bullish commercial outlook. Given this, the May contract could extend its uptrend to the 50% retracement level of $11.08.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 9.00cts higher at $9.80 last week. Nov soybeans posted a new 4-week high $9.94 1/4 indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up again. The higher weekly close, though well off the high, was enough to establish a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. The last major turn signal by weekly stochastics was a bullish crossover below 20% the week of October 6. The November 2015 to January 2016 futures spread continues to trend sideways at a neutral to bullish level of carry between 4 3/4 cents and 6 1/2 cents. This could support an extension of the secondary uptrend to a test of the 50% retracement level of $10.79 3/4.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.83, down 23 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways. Last week's action saw the SR.X post a bearish outside week, offsetting the bullish key reversal from two weeks ago. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, indicating cash SRW wheat could find renewed buying interest as it nears support at the previous low of $4.66.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The May Chicago contract closed 22.25cts lower at $5.07 last week. May Chicago wheat posted a bearish outside week, indicating the contract could move toward a test of its low of $4.89 1/4. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% meaning downside potential could be limited. The last major turn signal by stochastics was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% the week of September 29, 2014.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 20.75cts lower at $5.11 1/2 last week. July Chicago wheat posted a bearish outside week indicating a test of the contract low of $4.96 1/2 is possible in the coming weeks. Stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% indicating downside potential could be limited.

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