South America Calling

Brazil's Soy Industry Raises Soybean Export View

Brazil's soy industry association, Abiove, has raised its 2015 soybean export view to a record 50.3 million metric tons (mmt) amid a bumper harvest and extremely high shipment levels over the last three months.

The forecast was raised 3.3% on the June calculation and represents a jump of 9.3% on last year.

The soybean crush figure was also raised by 1 mmt to 40.1 mmt.

A review of the supply outlook prompted the industry to raise its 2014-15 soybean crop forecast by 0.7 mmt to 94.4 mmt.

Abiove raised its average export price estimate from $370 to $380 per ton, taking grain export revenues to $19.1 billion. However, that is still well down from the $23.3 billion collected last year.

Brazilian soybean shipments have been running extremely quickly this year, breaking successive records and underlining the strength of demand from China.

Farmers had feared heavy losses from the 2014-15 crop but peaks in Chicago futures and successive slides in the Brazilian real have created a number of selling opportunities and many will make some money. In the past week alone, the Brazilian real has lost 6% to the dollar amid political turmoil and global economic uncertainty. This has bolstered local quotes during the latest downturn in international prices.



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